Users Reach For Closed Models First

MIT Sloan put numbers on a key pattern - even when open models are cheaper & “good enough”, users still default to closed systems. Of course “good enough” varies wildly & is open to interpretation.

Their summary of new research (using OpenRouter usage data) is blunt - closed models account for ~80% of token usage (and nearly 96% of the revenue) despite open models averaging ~90% of closed-model performance and costing dramatically less to run.

“When grocery shoppers find a generic product that’s 90% as good as the brand name version but costs 87% less, they usually put it in their carts. But when it comes to large language models, most artificial intelligence users pick the more expensive option.” - MIT Sloan

That’s downward pressure on the Transparency dial. When the market’s revealed preference is “ship me the black box”, we normalise AI interfaces where provenance is unclear, decision paths are hidden, and inspection is not possible. MIT Sloan also points to why this happens - switching costs, reliability/security perceptions, and the ecosystem gravity that forms around the big closed providers.

Not a moral judgment - just a signal provided by human behaviour.

> The interface layer is thickening. If you disagree with my interpretation, or you’ve spotted a better signal then reply and tell me.